Betting on the NFL offers an exciting combination of strategy, analysis and excitement. Whether you are a seasoned bettor or new to the game, understanding key strategies can greatly improve your chances of success. Join bestsoccertips to learn about nfl betting tips through the following article!
Explaining NFL Betting
The NFL is the most popular sports betting league in the United States, offering various types of bets such as point spreads, moneylines, totals, parlays, prop bets, and futures.
Before placing bets on NFL games, it’s important to understand how American football betting works. Each game has a point spread, which is the projected margin of victory. The favorite team has points deducted, needing to win by more than that margin for the bet to win, while the underdog has points added and can win or lose by less than the spread.
Moneylines determine the odds of each team winning. The favorite has a negative moneyline, meaning you risk more than you win. The underdog has a positive moneyline, meaning you win more than you risk. You simply need the team you bet on to win.
Total bets require choosing Over or Under the projected total points for the game. You can bet on the entire game, a half, or a quarter, for both teams or one team. For example, Over 49.5 points in the Packers-Vikings game or Under 23.5 points for the Cardinals.
Parlays combine multiple bets for a higher payout, but you must win all bets. The payout depends on the odds and the number of bets included.
Teaser bets are similar to parlays, but you can adjust the point spread to make winning easier. For example, lowering the Buccaneers from -8 to -1 or raising the Bears from +3.5 to +10.5.
Each game has numerous outcomes based on teams and players, known as prop bets. Prop bets are similar to total bets where you choose Over or Under. For example, Vikings Over 3.5 points or Carson Wentz Over 230.5 passing yards.
Future bets are resolved at the end of the season, based on season outcomes such as awards or category winners. For example, the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl or Patrick Mahomes being the NFL MVP.
How to Bet on the NFL
Betting on the NFL is an easy process. Just follow these steps:
- Browse the board to find your preferred type of bet and wager.
- Use our Odds Comparison Tool to find the best line.
- Click on the icon at the best line to take you to that betting site.
- Sign up for an account there, or log into your existing account.
- If you’re joining a new site or app, use one of our promo links or codes.
- Place your preferred risk amount on your bet slip.
- Click “Place Bet.”
Before placing your bet, look for great welcome offers such as “Bet $10, Get $100” promotions that you might find from certain sportsbooks.
Best NFL Betting Tips
We wish we could tell you we have a magic football betting tip to know how to bet on football and always win. There’s no best way to bet on the NFL (or other leagues like the NBA, NHL, and MLB for that matter), but we can help you develop a profitable football betting strategy with simple tips to win football bets, whether you’re betting spreads, props, or simply moneylines.
If you want to know how to bet on football better, read on! We’ll provide recommendations on how to make winning NFL picks so you can decide the best football betting strategy for yourself.
1. Bet with Your Head, Not Your Heart
It sounds obvious, but avoiding emotions while betting remains a challenge for many gamblers. We all have personal biases. Whether it’s a favorite team or a team we despise, ignoring these preferences in favor of a rational sports betting strategy isn’t easy.
But here’s the thing: becoming more objective about NFL online betting is actually the easiest way to make smarter bets. It doesn’t require a detailed mathematical analysis strategy, just common sense. Keep an eye on the best lines and odds to avoid getting sucked into the bias rabbit hole.
Cheering for your favorite team (at least) 16 times a year is a lot of fun, but losing money in the process is not. To become a smarter sports bettor and find an edge against the bookies, be aware of your biases and try to avoid decisions based solely on favoritism. Don’t just bet on the Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs because you’re a die-hard fan and they’ve previously won the Super Bowl. This can be even more tempting for bettors in the Sunflower State as Kansas online sports betting sites are live.
2. Pay Attention to Where the Game is Played
Home-field advantage is crucial and it’s even more pronounced in certain stadiums. For example, the New England Patriots had a straight 42-6 record (32-14-2 ATS) at home from 2014-2018. The Seahawks also boasted an impressive record in Seattle, scoring 103-41 at home since 2003.
But they’re not the only teams with such advantages. Conduct your research by comparing each team’s home and away records when factoring in the home team advantage.
There are also teams that struggle on the road. From 2014-2018 (spanning 5 seasons), the San Francisco 49ers had a dismal 9-31 record on the road, third worst in the league. They didn’t fare much better against the spread, with a record of 16-22-2 (fourth worst in the NFL). The Texans also struggled to cover the spread on the road in 2016, achieving a record of 2-6.
Knowing the location and timing of games the week before is also a crucial factor to consider. Some teams face genuine disadvantages. West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have fewer challenges adjusting to time changes, whereas East Coast teams face inherent disadvantages when playing on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than usual.
Lastly, some dome (indoor) teams may struggle when playing outdoors. For instance, Drew Brees’ passer rating dropped from 102.5 indoors to 90.3 outdoors. These are all extremely valuable insights for NFL bettors.
3. Know Individual Matchups
Football is often seen as the ultimate team sport, but certain one-on-one matchups can significantly impact the outcome of a game.
For example, don’t expect a weak offensive line to perform well against top-tier defensive ends in the league. Pay attention to significant skill disparities between players who will face each other.
Coaches are perhaps the most important head-to-head opponents that NFL bettors should consider. Every coach uses routine strategies that are highly effective against some opponents and fail against others. Coaches study each other’s approaches and some will react better to these strategic considerations.
A prime example of this is Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick. The Patriots have held the upper hand since Belichick took charge, but he was 2-5 when coaching against Coughlin after the 2018 season.
4. Know More Than Just Trends
When betting on NFL games, tracking trends isn’t necessarily a bad idea — patterns sometimes provide valuable information. For example, from 2010 to 2018, the Bears achieved a 12-5 record against the spread (ATS) when coming off a bye week, whereas on the other hand, the 49ers only managed a 5-11 ATS record during the same period.
Realize that a team scoring 49 points the week before doesn’t necessarily mean their offense is firing on all cylinders. Look back and see how all those points were scored. Maybe a defensive back fell down to allow a long touchdown pass. Perhaps the defense scored a couple of touchdowns off turnovers. Maybe they were just playing the Browns.
The sharpest bettors always look behind the numbers when determining their football betting strategy.
5. Check Injury Reports
As mentioned, football is the ultimate team sport, and even minor changes can affect the entire unit. Make sure you know which players have missed practice during the week, their status for the upcoming game, and their roles on the team.
Team injury reports can be a bit vague, so you should check the Twitter accounts of beat writers for each team. They might not directly tell you the best football bets to make, but they often provide additional details that can help you accurately assess NFL lines.
6. Be Cautious with Divisional Matchups
Teams that play each other twice a season know each other very well, and even weaker teams tend to perform better when facing divisional rivals.
Looking back at 2016, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, and San Francisco 49ers were three of the four worst teams in the NFL, but they all had a record ATS of 4-2 in their respective divisions.
While one team might appear superior on paper, matchups between teams of the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC) often play out much closer than expected. This makes for great picks on NFL point spreads, but they can be risky money-wise.
7. Don’t Love Value
Betting on the underdog on the moneyline can certainly be profitable, but you need to consider why the long odds are so long from the start. Make sure you have specific reasons and logic behind beating +800 on the moneyline, because you can be sure that bettors have used reasons and logic to set those odds in the first place.
You also need to be cautious when building parlays and teasers. Don’t load them up with too many events. NFL teams often have tight matchups compared to other sports, and it’s very difficult to accurately predict the outcomes of multiple games. We actually recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events, even if you have valuable rewards like ESPN BET promo codes.
8. Monitor Lines Throughout the Week
Monitoring betting lines throughout the week is crucial to maximizing your opportunities. Some online sportsbooks may offer more favorable NFL odds, and as the week progresses, you may see the odds shift.
It’s important to note the influence of public perception here. Popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New England Patriots always have loyal fans betting with their hearts. They are often referred to as public teams and are likely to be favored more than what statistics and rankings might indicate.
If you plan to bet against the public, wait and let emotional bettors drive movements that are advantageous to you. Conversely, if you’re looking to bet on a public team, jumping on early lines set by sportsbooks may be your best bet.
9. Diversify Your NFL Bets
You can find success betting on the moneyline, point spreads, and game totals. But to maximize your success, it’s important to know all the alternative bets you can make.
Many sportsbooks will allow you to bet on alternative spreads or buy points. Instead of accepting a -3.5 point spread that makes you slightly uncomfortable, you could opt for a -2.5 spread with a more modest payout.
Look for value in alternative betting markets such as player props, over/unders, and live betting. NFL futures bets are great for entertainment purposes but notoriously difficult to beat. If you’re looking for more ways to diversify your betting in a game, consider constructing a same-game NFL parlay to have a chance at favorable odds and increased payouts.
Conclusion
Mastering NFL betting tips is a multifaceted endeavor that demands a blend of research, strategic thinking, and disciplined execution. To excel in this competitive arena, it’s essential to delve deep into team dynamics, player statistics, and game trends. By analyzing historical data and staying updated on team news, injuries, and performance metrics, bettors can gain a significant edge. Moreover, keeping an eye on betting odds across various platforms can uncover value and maximize potential returns. Factor in variables like home field advantage, weather conditions, and current form to make informed predictions. Above all, maintaining a disciplined approach to betting, avoiding impulsive decisions, and managing bankroll effectively are crucial for long-term success in NFL betting.
